The Trouble With Zagat

The Zagat Guide is a wonderful restaurant directory. It allows you to search on a wide variety of criteria (neighborhood, cuisine, etc.), and it provides just about all of the basic information you need (address, phone number, hours, map, price range). The comments provided, although brief, are often witty and scathingly accurate.

But the one area where Zagat falls down is the statistic most often quoted, and for which Zagat is best known: the numeric ratings of each restaurant. Zagat separately rates Food, Décor and Service on a 1-to-30 scale. If properly used, this scale would provide sufficient amplitude to distinguish the neighborhood taco stand from Alain Ducasse and Per Se. In practice, it does nothing of the kind. This is ironic, given that restaurants love to post their so-called “Zagat rating,” and some will say that they’re “Zagat rated.” What is this so-called “rating”?

For starters, Zagat is a raw popularity contest, with very little guidance given to the voters. Someone who thinks Olive Garden is a pretty good restaurant is going to rate all of Little Italy off-the-charts, while an experienced high-end diner will pooh-pooh anyplace that lacks a chef’s tasting menu. The upshot is you have a hot dog stand like Gray’s Papaya carrying a Zagat food rating of 20 out of 30, which (according to Zagat’s own definitions) is supposed to mean “very good to excellent,” when the highest rating in New York is just 28.

Zagat’s own voting mechanism is largely at fault. Individual voters are allowed to vote on a 0-to-3 scale. Zagat says that “1” is supposed to mean “good,” but psychologically a “1” vote feels like “below average.” People will realize that “3” must be pretty damned good, so there’s a tendency for almost everything to get rated “2”. For the final rating, Zagat multiplies the average by 10 and rounds off, resulting in the familiar 1-to-30 scale.

A look at the details shows that this is a serious problem. Of the 1,454 restaurants in Zagat’s 2003 New York guide, 74% of them carry a food rating between 18 and 23. What’s more, 97% of them carry a food rating of 16 or higher, and none carry a food rating worse than 9. The upshot is that what’s claimed to be a 1–30 scale is, for all practical purposes, a 16–28 scale. You can safely say that any restaurant with a Zagat rating of 25 or higher is very good. But ratings below 25, which is almost all of them, are in an undifferentiated scrum, and aren’t statistically significant.

Oddly, voters are considerably more discriminating in their Décor ratings: just 62% of New York restaurants have a Décor rating 16 or higher, and just 36% are clustered in the 18–23 range. When it comes to Service, Zagat voters rate about 80% of restaurants 16 or higher, and 54% are in the 18–23 range. So the Zagat Service ratings are nearly, but not quite, as useless as the Food ratings, while the Décor ratings actually do seem to mean something.

The pernicious tendency of the ratings to cluster around 20 is shown in the following graph:

I am not sure why voters are least discriminating about the one thing that should matter most at a restuarant - the food - but perhaps it’s because the qualities that make food great are awfully difficult to describe. Yet, everyone knows an ugly room when they see it.

I think Zagat would be considerably more reliable if they collected votes on the same scale they report, from 0 to 30. Voters would then tend to rate an average restaurant “15”, instead of “2”. The higher Zagat ratings would be harder to get, and the scale overall would be a lot more meaningful.

[Update: After I posted this, a colleague on eGullet observed that the Zagat food ratings are almost a proper bell curve, if you consider “average” to be 20 rather than 15. The problem is that the standard deviation is only about 2, which means that the scale simply fails to offer a meaningful spread between the best and the worst.]

Of course, there’s no chance of Tim and Nina actually changing anything, so the Zagat ratings will continue to be the least useful part of what is otherwise a very useful service.

(The Mercer) Kitchen

I was invited to lunch yesterday at (The Mercer) Kitchen, one of the ubiquitous Jean-Georges Vongerichten’s many properties. (Its proper name is written out with parentheses around “The Mercer.”) The restaurant occupies part of the ground floor and basement of a hotel at the corner of Mercer & Prince Streets, in SoHo. It’s an impressive space. The ground floor is a bar, with comfortable chairs and small cocktail tables generously spaced. In the back of this area are floor-to-ceiling bookshelves, suggesting a library.

The restaurant proper is downstairs. Part of it is in the vault space below the sidewalk. Look up from your table, and you see (and sometimes hear) people walking over the grillework up above. There is glass in the interstices of the grille, but keep reading: evidently the seal isn’t quite perfect. Near the back are several long communal tables — evidently a staple of Jean-Georges Vongerichten’s restaurants. These tables look on an open kitchen — yet another JGV staple. The décor is dark and sleek.

I ordered from the $20 prix fixe lunch menu. An appetizer of Wild Mushroom Bruschetta with Prosciutto failed to impress. I am the world’s worst cook, so when my reaction to a dish is, “I could easily do that,” it’s not a good sign. It seemed to be no more than mushrooms and ham on slightly soggy rye toast.

Things improved as we moved to the main course: Roast Duck Breast with Bok Choy, Ramps and Rhubarb. The rhubarb, a pale pink sauce framing thin duck slices, was what made the dish.

Dessert — Gianduja Parfait with Coconut Soup — was heavenly. One of my lunch companions speaks seven languages, and he explained that gianduja is a hazelnut chocolate. I wonder why the restaurant couldn’t tell us that on the menu. Is “gianduja” a common word? I don’t think so.

In the middle of the meal, we noticed a flurry of activity around the tables near us. It turned out the staff were hanging umbrellas on the sprinkler pipes just below the grillework that separates the restaurant from the sidewalk above. By the time they were done, the entire front section of the restaurant was ringed with a protective cocoon of upsidedown umbrellas, resembling the famous scene from Mary Poppins. What a bizarre sight! Rain was forecast, but none fell before we left, so I didn’t get to see what that was like.

It was a satisfactory meal, but I won’t be dying to go back.

(The Mercer) Kitchen (99 Prince Street at Mercer Street, SoHo)

Food: Satisfactory
Service: *
Ambiance: Satisfactory
Overall: Satisfactory

Olympics Plan Advances

New York City’s bid to host the 2012 Olympic Summer Games cleared a hurdle today, when the International Olympic Committee (IOC) narrowed the field from nine cities to five. Paris, London, Madrid, and Moscow join New York in the final round, with a decision expected in July 2005. Havana, Istanbul, Leipzig and Havana fell out of contention.

The decision was not really in doubt, given the well publicized conclusions of an IOC technical committee, which found “a high level of confidence” that Paris, London, Madrid, and New York could stage the games successfully. It found Moscow’s capabilities just barely adequate, so the inclusion of Moscow in the final five is about the only surprise. The report found that the other four cities “do not have the requisite level of capability at this time.”

Bookmakers have installed Paris as an 11-10 favorite to land the 2012 games, with London at 5-4, Madrid 7-1, New York 8-1, and Moscow 20-1. Paris scored highly on all of the IOC’s criteria, it has already been through the bid process twice (1992 and 2008), and it hasn’t hosted an Olympics since 1924. New York suffers because Vancouver, B.C., has already been awarded the 2012 Winter Games, and the IOC doesn’t like to hold consecutive games on the same continent. New York’s bid has other problems. Significant infrastructure, much of it as yet unfunded, would need to be built between now and 2012. The Olympic bid has garnered at best lukewarm public support, and internationally there could well be an anti-American backlash among the highly politicized IOC voters, because of the Iraq invasion.

One major piece of unbuilt infrastructure is the Olympic Stadium, officially known as the “New York Sports and Convention Center.” Promoters chose that name to deflect attention from the fact that, should the Olympics bid fail, the facility will be primarily known as the new home of the New York Jets. The Jets are proposing to contribute $800 million of their own money, but they also expect about $600 million of public money, and some community leaders are skeptical about appropriating such a hefty sum so that a profitable football team can play eight home dates a year.

The stadium design was unveiled today. It’s a thing of beauty - at least in the artist’s renderings. The Jets and Deputy Mayor Doctoroff desperately hope to break ground before next July, both to demonstrate to the IOC that New York’s Olympics plans are real, and to give the stadium a raison d’etre other than hosting Jets football games.

The Jets are clearly eager to demonstrate that the stadium is more than just corporate welfare for a carpetbagging football team. They say:

The NYSCC will have something for everyone in the neighborhood. Beyond the projected schedule of 17 stadium events, 30 conventions, and two super-events per year, the Center will host daily events and activities for the members of the community and visitors.

Along 34th Street, the full city block will be dedicated to a grand public space, ceremoniously connecting the Hudson River and the Highline to 34th Street. The revitalized 34th Street corridor will feature a promenade transforming one of the city’s most overcrowded streets to provide pedestrians with a peaceful and stunning view of the stadium and river, amid trees, gardens and benches. The promenade will also conveniently provide street level access through a series of ramps and stairs around the Center and onto the Highline as it threads its way south.

I remain highly skeptical that the new stadium will really enjoy that much use, and with the Olympics bid remaining a long-shot, it’s a dubious investment.

Nobu

Note: Click here for a more recent review of Nobu.

A vendor invited me out to lunch at Nobu on Friday. That meant he was paying. We had no reservation, but we were waiting by the door when they opened at 11:45am, and we were seated immediately. My host had done this before, so apparently it’s a dependable way to get into Nobu without a rez. We only had to promise that we’d vacate our table by 1:30pm. It was my first visit.

For lunch, Nobo offers a wide variety of sushi and sashimi plates, soups and side dishes, several sushi/sashimi assortments in the $23-$28 range, a prix fixe package at $20.04, and the chef’s omakase at “$55 to $65 and up.” There’s also a two-column list running to a closely-spaced half-page, which the waiter called “Chef Nobu’s signature dishes.” The menu had another name for them, but the waiter’s term sticks in my memory.

The waiter advised us to skip the sushi, and to order 4 or 5 of the signature dishes, which he told us are served “Tapas style.” That means they come one at a time, to be shared by the table. We chose 5 of the signature dishes – basically the ones the waiter recommended – as well as the Spicy Seafood Soup, which my host had enjoyed on his previous visit. The waiter’s descriptions went by at blazing speed, and frankly I wasn’t entirely sure what we’d chosen. He told us about a few special dishes not on the menu, and we chose one of these, but I always wonder why a restaurant can’t be bothered to put the daily specials on a piece of paper. I think Nobu could manage it. At any rate, it all sounded good.

The Spicy Seafood Soup came first, and it reminded me of that old commercial about the soup so chunky you want to eat it with a fork. There was just an amazing amount of seafood packed into the soup bowl. Then came yellowtail with cilantro and jalapeno peppers; I thought the last two ingredients slightly overwhelmed the first. It was the only dish about which I had even the slightest reservations. Our second signature dish was kobe beef, thinly sliced, and prepared with two kinds of spices. A tuna sashimi salad was sheer perfection, with several large slices of rare tuna. Then came squid pasta (hard to explain), and finally a black sea bass so rich and flavorful that I can still taste it.

I can see why the waiter steered us away from sushi. My host, who had ordered sushi the last time he visited, confirmed this. The so-called signature dishes are extraordinary and without parallel. The sushi, he said, is of course among the best that can be had, but doesn’t stand out from what’s available elsewhere quite so conspicuously.

With five dishes shared among two of us, plus soup, I left Nobu quite full, and yet sorry that the meal was over. Every dish was creative, full of flavor, perfectly seasoned, and prepared with an obvious attention to every detail. While enjoying our own meal, my host and I watched the parade of plates arriving at adjoining tables. No matter what you order, every dish entertains the eye as much as the taste buds. They are all works of sculpture – “Art in Food,” as my host observed. He promised to invite me back again, this time for dinner, in a couple of months or so. I can hardly wait.

Nobu (105 Hudson Street at Franklin Street, TriBeCa)

Port Authority Confronts Silverstein

The New York Post reports that the Port Authority has asked WTC developer Larry Silverstein to explain how he expects to pay his share of rebuilding costs. Now that Silverstein has lost a lawsuit against most of his insurers, the most he could receive is $4.6 billion, and it could be as little as $3.5 billion depending on how the remaining court battles play out (and he has lost all of them so far). That's a far cry from the $7.0 billion Silverstein would have received, had he persuaded a jury that the 9/11 attacks counted as two separate occurrences.

Now, $4.6 billion isn't exactly chump change, but Silverstein has already blown $1.48 billion of it on legal fees, mortgage payments, and his $120 million-a-year lease with the Port Authority. It's estimated he'd owe another $630 million on lease payments before the 1,776-foot Freedom Tower, on which he's breaking ground this summer, could start generating income.

Silverstein estimates it will cost $1.6 billion to build the Freedom Tower, but the Port Authority believes he also owes a contribution to the sub-grade infrastructure, which could run to another billion. Add it all up, and it's more money than Silverstein is known to have. Banks are unlikely to lend Silverstein any more money when the Freedom Tower as yet has no principal tenant.

The bet here is that the Port Authority will have to find a way to buy Silverstein out of his lease.

August (the restuarant)

Note: This is a review of August under Executive Chef Tony Liu, who left the restaurant in 2007 to take over Keith McNally’s Morandi, and later Pulino’s. Terrence Gallivan replaced Liu, before moving to the ill-fated Alto in 2011. Jordan Frosolone, the former chef de cuisine at Hearth, replaced Gallivan. In November 2011, Josh Eden (formerly of Shorty’s.32) replaced Frosolone.

*

I had a very happy experience the other night at August. Eric Asimov was absolutely right about the heavenly smell.

Arriving at 6:30pm for a pre-theater dinner, I had my choice of tables. When I left an hour later, they had started to fill up but still had two tables free. By 8:30pm, you would definitely have a wait. An outdoor garden is to open within the next couple of weeks. It will have a retractable roof, allowing it to be used year-round. This will double the capacity of the restaurant.

I ordered a Ramp Vichysoisse soup to start, which misfired. It is supposed to be served cold. If this were a blind taste test, you’d have trouble deciding whether it was a hot soup that had been left at room temperature too long, or a cold soup that had been allowed to warm up.

Things improved markedly with Softshell Crabs Grenobloise, served over a bed of haricots verts. The crabs, served whole, were done to perfect crispness, and an explosion of flavor greeted the tongue as I bit inside. Incidentally, the dish appears on the menu as “Skate Grenobloise,” but for now softshell crabs have replaced the skate. (This was fully disclosed before I ordered.)

I finished with the daily selection of artisinal cheeses, a selection of three very flavorful and contrasting chesses that the manager informed me he had selected and purchased himself. He recommended a glass of Castilla y Lyon Rioja that perfectly complemented the cheeses without overwhelming them.

Service was friendly and prompt, although I thought it took a tad too long for the cheese course to arrive. However, I had left plenty of time to finish dinner, and the Rioja kept me amused. One minor complaint is that the dessert menu had no prices. Silly me, I assumed the desserts would be priced in proportion to the rest of the menu, and didn’t bother to ask. Turns out the cheese course was $15, which was only $2 less than my entrée. Although I’ve no regrets about the evening, I really had no clue that I was selecting a $15 dessert.

August doesn’t take reservations, but apparently there are exceptions if you get to know them. While I was there, a lady came in and booked a table for 8pm on Sunday for her mother’s 91st birthday. “We don’t take reservations, but call me at 6pm Sunday to remind me, and I’ll set aside a table for you.” It was obvious from the conversation that the lady had been in before. I overheard a couple of other conversations along similar lines.

It really is time to rename the Eric Asimov’s New York Times column, “$25 and Under.” The arrival of a new critic starting June 1st may provide the occasion to do so. My 3-course meal, with two glasses of wine, ran to $73 including tax and tip. By no rational definition can this be considered a “$25-and-under” restaurant, unless you eat a one-course meal and drink sodas, which is probably not what most people have in mind. Nor is August the first restaurant the Asimov column has covered that stretched the $25 ceiling way beyond plausibility. The name hasn’t changed for about 20 years. Thanks to inflation, restaurants that realistically fall within that range, and yet are still worth reviewing, are a vanishing breed. Perhaps “Informal Dining,” although less catchy, would be a more sensible title.

August (359 Bleecker Street, between W. Tenth & Charles Streets, West Village)

Food: *½
Service: *
Ambiance: *½
Overall: *½

Fulton Street Transit Center

The MTA has posted the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) for the Fulton Street Transit Center (FSTC). This is one of the major transit projects receiving Federal funding as part of the post-9/11 aid package.

The FSTC is a massive reconstruction of the Fulton-Broadway-Nassau station complex, the 9th busiest in the subway system, where the Broadway (2,3), Lexington (4,5), Eighth Avenue (A,C) and Nassau St (J,M,Z) Lines meet. It was originally four separate stations, constructed early in the 20th century by three competing companies that had no interest in working together. Free transfers between the lines were added when the city took over the entire subway system at mid-century, but the design of the complex was never rationalized. It is a bewildering array of ramps and staircases, with dozens of entrances, many of which are poorly located and far too narrow to accommodate peak passenger loads.

As part of this project:

The 2/3 and 4/5 stations, which are basically unchanged since they were built in the early 1900s, will be rehabilitated.

The A/C mezzanine will be totally rebuilt, eliminating a confusing series of ramps, and improving connections to the 2/3 and 4/5.

The whole station complex will become ADA compliant.

There will be a new "grand point of entry" on the east side of Broadway, between Fulton and John Streets. Five buildings on that block will be demolished, with only the historic Corbin Building (on the corner of John and Broadway) surviving.

There will be new entrances Broadway and Maiden Lane. The entrances on the west side of Broadway will be totally rebuilt, including a new headhouse at the corner of Dey and Broadway (with the low-rise building on the south corner of that intersection demolished). Most other entrances will be widened and made more accessible.

There will be a new underground passageway along Dey Street, connecting the complex to the World Trade Center.

There will be a new free transfer between the N/R and the E at the World Trade Center.

The MTA considered ten alternatives, of which two will receive further analysis in the Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) later this year. The two surviving alternatives differ mainly in how they deal with the Corbin Building at the corner of John and Broadway. In one alternative, the Corbin Building is untouched; in the other, the Corbin building is acquired as part of the project, and integrated into the new entrance building along Broadway. The description in the DEIS strongly suggests that the MTA prefers this latter option.

Construction is set to start in late 2004, with completion in 2007.

Clueless Chowhounds

There are two online food boards that I follow regularly: eGullet and Chowhound. Both have discussion forums organized by geography. You’ll find eGullet’s New York board here, and you’ll find Chowhound’s Manhattan board here. (Chowhound management tosses a hissy fit if you mention Peter Luger on their Manhattan board, even though Luger is economically part of the Manhattan market. They insist it belongs on an “outer borough” board.)

eGullet is superior to Chowhound in almost every respect. It has a more intuitive user interface, it is easier to find things, and the average post is considerably more sophisticated. This is not to deny that you sometimes find useful comments on Chowhound - otherwise I wouldn’t bother to read it - but they’re fewer and far between.

I am particularly amused by clueless Chowhound posts like this one yesterday:

Looking for recommendations for good eats (dinner) in the West 50’s. Scene/buzz/beautiful people _not_ of interest; just wonderful eats.

All cuisines are in the ballpark except for Mexican and Indian (thanks to spice allergy).

Now, there are hundreds of restaurants in the West 50s. Menupages lists 274 of them, and of course not all restaurants are on Menupages. So to ask for “good eats” in the West 50s, with the only requirement that it not be Mexican or Indian, is an idiotic question. I mean, I’m pretty tolerant of those who are intellectually challenged, but this is just not a thoughtful question. And there are a few howlers like this on Chowhound’s Manhattan board almost every day.

And am I the only one who finds the ridiculous word “eats” totally unnecessary? I’m alright with “foodie” (another recurring word on these boards), as there is no other word of comparable length that conveys the same meaning. It is, in other words, a useful addition to the language. But “eats” merely means “food,” as far as I can tell, and both are four letters.

Lower Manhattan Projects Advance

It has been a busy week for the Lower Manhattan rebuilding program. In a speech today before the Association before a Better New York, Governor Pataki gave his semi-annual report on progress downtown. As usual, he took the occasion to make a bit of news:

• Freedom Tower. Construction of the 1,776-foot skyscraper will begin on July 4, 2004, about two months earlier than previously announced.
• The Memorial. Schematic drawings will be completed by the end of 2004 and detailed drawings by the end of 2005, with construction to begin by 2006. Some $350 million will need to be raised to pay for it. Major League Baseball got the ball rolling with a $1 million contribution.
• Fulton Street Transit Center. Design of the new transit hub that will link 12 subway lines at the corner of Fulton & Broadway will be unveiled on May 26, 2004.
• Deutsche Bank Building. Demolition of the crippled shell that was once Deutsche Bank's (and, before that, Bankers Trust's) downtown headquarters will begin in the fall and be completed in 2005.
• West Street Promenade. The project intended to turn West Street into New York's version of the Champs-Elysee will begin in September, and the first section - from Washington Street to West Thames Street - will be complete by the end of 2005.
• South Ferry Terminal. A new subway terminal at South Ferry has completed initial design and should open by 2007. The project will replace an antiquated subway station dating from 1905, and will also provide a new free transfer to the Whitehall Street Station on the Broadway Line.
• Battery Park Ferry Terminal. Construction on a new Battery Park City Ferry Terminal has begun, with completion scheduled for 2006.

Pataki also elaborated on plans leaked to the press earlier in the week for a JFK-LIRR-Lower Manhattan Rail Link. The Governor favors a new East River tunnel, which (along with infrastructure on either side of the river) would cost at least $6.0 billon. No one yet knows where such a vast sum would come from, but Pataki pledged to begin the environmental review process this summer, and to find the money somehow before that process is completed. The study will also consider using the existing Montague Street Tunnel, which serves M and R trains today, but has some spare capacity. The Montague option, although less expensive, would severely constrict the subway system's capacity to grow or adapt to service outages.

The Governor believes the new tunnel could be operational by 2013. He says it would carry 100,000 passengers a day and would result in an increased economic output of $6 to 8 billion annually in Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn, and as much as $9 to 12 billion in the region as a whole. You can expect that there will be plenty of skeptics wondering where those figures come from.

Famous Oyster Bar

Last night, a friend visiting from out of town invited me to join him for dinner in midtown. Restaurant plans were loose, and I cringed when he suggested the Famous Oyster Bar. The neon “Seafood” sign suggested it catered to tourists who are looking for something a bit better than Red Lobster. I’m sure the clientele is nearly all walk-ins staying at hotels like the Sheraton and the Milford Plaza.

The restaurant has been there since 1959, and it probably hasn’t had a renovation since then. Not even Zagat has noticed it. The décor is a trite assemblage of maritime detritus (a life preserver, an oar, etc.). The laminated menus are worn and and frayed, with a predictable offering of steaks, seafood, pasta fra diavolo, frutta di mare, clam chowder, and so forth. When you’ve finished your diet coke, the server brings an iced tea refill (that is, when she manages to notice you need one).

There are specials written on a board, and it is here that the Famous Oyster Bar comes alive. A whole trout stuffed with crabmeat was a pleasant surprise, crispy on the outside, and succulently moist inside. This was an entrée that actually required some thought, and they managed to get it right. My friend ordered soft-shell crabs and was also pleased.

We both had clam chowder to start; although unremarkable, it was a bargain at $3.95 for a cup. The seafood entrées were generally in the $19-23 range. The bill for two came to $82 (with only one of us drinking alcohol).

I’m willing to try anything once, and the Famous Oyster Bar managed to exceed expectations. It helps to have expected nothing.

Famous Oyster Bar (842 Seventh Ave at 54th Street, West Midtown)

Food: *
Service: Satisfactory
Ambiance: Fair
Overall: *