Friday
Jul302004

71 Clinton Fresh Food

I feel compelled to note for the record that I tried 71 Clinton Fresh Food a couple of weeks ago. It’s part of the gaggle of high-end Lower East Side eateries that have opened in recent years. Star chef Wylie Dufresne made his name here, but Dufresne hopped across the street to the award-winning WD-50.

71CFF is now under chef Jason Neroni. I never visited the restaurant during Dufresne’s tenure, so I can’t make comparisons. However, I was underwhelmed. I have already forgotten the appetizer, and a duck entree seemed unimaginative.

Mind you, I didn’t consider myself ill-served at 71CFF. But with appetizers in the $11-19 range, and main courses $19-27, it’s not a cheap evening out. The city, and indeed the neighborhood, has better to offer at that price.

Postscript: Not long after our visit, Frank Bruni reviewed 71 Clinton Fresh Food in The New York Times, re-affirming its two-star rating. The restaurant closed in March 2006, after the chef, Jason Neroni, left to cook for “some kind of billionaire.” The billionaire must not have been smitten, because by November Neroni was back in New York, helming the stoves at an “unpretentious Italian bistro,” Porchetta. That’s now closed, too.

71 Clinton Fresh Food (71 Clinton Street between Rivington & Stanton Streets, Lower East Side)

Food: *
Service: **
Ambiance: *
Overall: *

Friday
Jul302004

Thalia

Some restaurants have the buzz, and some don’t. Thalia is one of those restaurants that’s never mentioned on the food boards, but it carries a two-star NYT rating from 2000, and based on my visit there the other night, it deserves a lot more attention.

I started with the Seared Herb Crusted Tuna Sashimi, which comes with pickled vegetables, sweet soy, chive oil & hot mustard. (I am copying from their website, else my identification of the ingredients wouldn’t be so precise.) The tuna was wonderfully fresh, and the soy sauce, which artfully decorated the plate, added a tangy finish to the taste.

For the main course, I had the Jerked Florida Grouper, which is served with lump crabmeat pico de gallo, sweet plantains & chipotle pepper sauce. This too was a wonderfully inventive combination, giving life to a fish that I usually find dull.

I have to report that my friend was a bit less enthusiastic. She had the crab cakes appetizer and the rack of lamb entrée. No particular complaint, but she wasn’t as wowed by her choices as I was.

To conclude, we shared a Trio of Creme Brulee, which comes with three small servings of raspberry, lavender, and chocolate Pot de Creme. No complaint here, and at $10 a bargain.

Appetizers are $7-18 (the latter for a lobster salad; all others are $14 or less), entrées $13-27, and desserts $7-10 ($14 for the cheese tasting). There is also a raw bar, which we did not sample.

Service was prompt — perhaps to a fault. Our appetizers arrived seemingly within minutes, which was so quick that our server hadn’t yet arrived with the wine. The wine list seemed to us expensive in relation to the menu. We settled on a $38 red that was acceptable without being special. The next level up would have required us to spend quite a bit more, which we weren’t of a mind to do.

The noise level at Thalia was mercifully lower than at many restaurants I’ve tried lately, although there is still an audible buzz around the place. We enjoyed a leisurely meal and were able to hear ourselves talk, which is never a given in New York restaurants.

Thalia (828 Eighth Avenue at 50th Street, West Midtown)

Food: *
Service: *
Ambiance: *
Overall: *

Friday
Jul302004

Babbo

Note: Click here and here for more recent visits to Babbo.

In New York, there’s hardly a tougher table to come by than at Babbo, chef Mario Batali’s flagship in Greenwich Village. Reservations are accepted up to one month to the calendar date in advance, and if you want one you’d best call at 10:00am on that exact date.

But if you don’t mind eating at the bar, you can amble in any day at the 5:00pm opening time. Babbo offers wonderful service at the bar itself, and there are also several tables in the area that are first-come, first-served. I gave Babbo a try last Saturday night, sitting at the bar as many reviews had recommended.

I had my heart set on the pasta tasting menu, but I was surprised to learn that they won’t serve their tasting menus to parties of one. What an unfriendly policy! It’s their loss, as I ended up spending less money.

Anyhow, I proceeded to order à la carte. Babbo is well known for offal, so that’s where my priorities lay. I started with Pig’s Feet Milanese. This looked a bit like a large potato pancake, crispy on the outside, gooey on the inside. It was a wonderful taste sensation.

I then had the dish so much talked about, the Beef Cheek Ravioli. Perhaps it was inevitable that it couldn’t exceed its reputation, but it is a wonderful creation, putting traditional raviolis to shame.

Babbo offers plates of 3, 5, of 7 cheeses for dessert, priced at $12, $15, and $18 respectively. I chose the 5-cheese plate, which was really far too much for one person after a full-size appetizer and main course. A waiter came around and gave a back-story for all five cheeses (one of them came from a farm run by Mario Batali’s wife’s parents) and recommended the order in which they should be eaten, from least-to-most “assertive.”

In an unusual custom, Babbo serves its single-serving wines by the quartino, rather than by the glass. A quartino is about 1/3 of a bottle, so you get about two glasses for around the price many restaurants charge for just one. I’m not a big drinker, so that was about all I needed to pace myself through the meal.

The New York Times’s new restaurant critic, Frank Bruni, chose Babbo as his first review, re-affirming a three-star status first conferred by Ruth Reichl six years ago. I agree with Frank Bruni that Babbo is a bit too crowded to qualify for four stars, but he complained of “relatively hard rock” music, played too loudly for comfort. I found none of this. Perhaps the soundtrack changes later in the evening?

Although I was there alone on this occasion, I believe my dining companions — had there been any — would have heard each other a lot easier than in most New York restaurants I’ve tried recently. The Bruni review led me to expect the hustle-bussle of a brasserie, and that Babbo is not. Service was excellent, particularly considering that I was a bar patron.

Babbo has so much to offer, and I felt that I saw just the tip of the iceberg. I will have to go back.

Babbo (110 Waverly Pl. between MacDougal St. and Sixth Ave., Greenwich Village)

Food: ***
Service: **
Ambiance: **
Overall: ***

Friday
Jul302004

BLT Steak

Laurent Tourondel got a raw deal the last time he opened a restaurant in New York. Right out of the gate, the much-lauded Cello earned three stars from the Times, but his backers got cold feet after 9/11. They pulled the plug one night when he was out of town, and he returned to find he no longer had a restaurant.

At BLT Steak, it looks like Tourondel has a winner on his hands. The place seems to fill up every night, and it’s in a part of town where there’s not much competition in the genre. And it’s just close enough to be a suitable pre-concert haunt for the Carnegie Hall crowd.

“BLT” stands for Bistro Laurent Tourondel, although I believe they’ll actually serve you an upscale version of the BLT sandwich if you visit at lunch time. As the name implies, you’ll get a steak there and be happy. The choice surprised some critics, however, as Cello was best known for its seafood. A companion restaurant called “BLT Fish” is said to be in the works.

A friend and I tried BLT Steak for dinner last Friday night. The restaurant has a split personality, with the décor seeming more upscale than a bistro, but the specials menu posted on the back wall screaming, “Don’t take us too seriously!”

Our table seemed larger than the typical table-for-two, and at first it seemed like we had to shout a bit to hear each other above the din, for BLT Steak is certainly a loud place. However, we needed all of that space once the side dishes started to arrive.

After we sat down, a server brought sliced bread and goose liver paté. This was followed by the celebrated popovers — enormous fluffy pastry balls the size of a barbell — with soft butter. At this point, those with small stomachs will feel half-full already, but there is a dinner to be eaten.

We both fixed our gaze on the heirloom tomato appetizer, and a fine choice this was. The tomatoes were thick, rich, and perfectly seasoned.

Several reviewers had said that BLT Steak was actually a better place for fish. However, we were in a carnivorous mood, so we ordered the Ribeye for Two, with sides of french fries and creamed spinach. We also chose our sauces: horseradish and three mustards. This seemed to us a competent presentation, but nothing to rush back for. Our feeling was that BLT Steak deserves another look…but next time, for the fish.

We ordered a $48 cabernet from the specials board. It too was acceptable without wowing us.

BLT Steak (106 E. 57th Street, between Park & Lexington Avenues, East Midtown)

Food: **
Service: *
Ambiance: *
Overall: **

Friday
Jul302004

Montrachet

Note: Montrachet closed in May 2006—ostensibly for “renovations,” but it never re-opened, and its wine cellar was sold. The space (with the same ownership) is now Corton.

*

In March 2004, New York Times interim restaurant critic Amanda Hesser made a stir when she demoted Montrachet, the long-time three-star standout in TriBeCa, to two stars. Whether Montrachet deserved the slap-down may be debated, but the review stood out for its soul-lessness.

I had a chance to find out for myself last week. Hesser’s comments about the décor seemed to me completely wacky. She wrote:

Entering the restaurant is a bit like stepping through the looking glass. There is no coat room in the tiny foyer. A small portable heater set on top of a wine cask buzzed at the coat checker, who took my coat, hung it on a metal rack in the dining room, then looked up my reservation. She was polite, warm even.

Before me stood a dining room with sponge-painted walls and self-consciously modern paintings. It felt like a scene from “Wall Street.” I could picture Michael Douglas sitting at a red banquette, bellowing into a first-generation cellphone the size of a shoe.

I hadn’t been to Montrachet in years, and I suddenly felt the disappointment of returning to a childhood home and finding that the backyard is not so big as you remembered, that the curtains are kind of shabby. Montrachet even smells old.

I can’t comment on the coat rack and space heater—it being high summer, these accoutrements were entirely unnecessary. But the space itself seems elegant and refined. It didn’t smell old.

I was there with a party of three. Two of us chose the appetizer of Marinated Sea Scallops with Gazpacho Sauce. This was a bit disappointing, as the gazpacho overwhelmed the scallops, leaving them flabby and dead to the taste. The third member of our party ordered a Wild Mushroom Bisque, which he pronounced a success.

We had three different main courses, which all were pleased with. Between us, we tried the Magret of Duck with Pistachios and Cherry Endive Compote, the Chilean Sea Bass “en Barigoule” with Parmigiano Reggiano, and the Grilled Rib Eye Steak with Morels, Texas Sweet Onions and Truffles.

Montrachet has one of the most revered wine lists in the city, and it takes a connoisseur (or the sommelier’s guidance) to make sense of it. One of my companions knows his wines, and he chose a PlumpJack Cabernet Sauvignon — a brand previously unknown to me — that I found superb.

For the record, appetizers at Montrachet are $11-22, mains are $24-32, desserts $10-11. A cheese course runs to $16 per head. All three of us tried that, and I was gratified to find that it included good-sized samples of five contrasting cheeses, which is more than you get for the money at many restaurants in town.

Montrachet also offers four fixed menus. There are two three-course prix fixe options at $30 or $46, a six-course tasting for $79, or an eight-course tasting for $95. The latter is available only Monday to Friday.

Montrachet certainly seems to me superior to most two-star restaurants in New York. While one cannot judge fairly on a single visit, on this showing I would say that Hesser’s demotion to two stars was an injustice.

Montrachet (239 West Broadway between White and Walker Streets, TriBeCa)

Food: ***
Service: ***
Ambiance: ***
Overall: ***

Thursday
Jul292004

Federal Criminal Sentences in Limbo

The Federal criminal sentencing process is in turmoil. It’s all because of a U. S. Supreme Court decision issued in June, Blakely vs. Washington. It now appears all-but-certain that the Federal sentencing guidelines, which are nearly twenty years old, are unconstitutional.

Here’s the background:

Until 1984, Federal judges had wide discretion to decide punishments. There were some Federal crimes for which the sentencing range was anything from probation to life in prison. Crimes with ranges of zero to ten or zero to twenty were quite common. Naturally, there was significant disparity between sentences. Defendants who committed seemingly identical crimes were received vastly different punishments, depending on which judge they were lucky (or unlucky) enough to get.

The pre-1984 scheme also allowed for parole. So, if a defendant was sentenced to ten years in prison, a parole officer would later recommend how much time he really served, based on his behavior in prison and a guess about his state of rehabilitation. In a way, it was really the parole officer, not the judge, who eventually decided the length of the sentence.

For many years, Congress had wrestled with revising the criminal code to provide for more determinate sentences. Ultimately, the task proved too daunting, and Congress instead passed the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984 (“SRA”). The SRA punted the responsibility for reforming Federal sentencing to a newly minted Sentencing Commission. The Commission was tasked with designing prescriptive guidelines that would leave the judge very little room for discretion. The Act also abolished parole, although it did allow time off for good behavior. Nevertheless, under the Act, defendants were assured of serving at least 85% of their sentences.

The Sentencing Commission’s guidelines are a mind-boggling collection of formulas that run longer than a small town telephone directory. Based on myriad characteristics of the offense and the offender, the judge is given a narrow “guideline range” in which to sentence the defendant. A typical guideline range is something like 120 to 150 months (10 to 12 1/2 years) in prison. The judge can depart from this range if there are mitigating or aggravating factors in the case that the guidelines didn’t cover. Given the level of detail embedded in the guidelines calculation, this rarely happens.

Some people argued at the time that Congress had exceeded its authority in enacting the SRA. The argument was that only Congress can pass laws deciding what the punishment will be for specific crimes — it can’t delegate this authority to an unelected Commission. However, the Supreme Court ruled 8-1 that the SRA was a constitutionally permissible delegation of legislative power. Justice Scalia dissented, calling the Commission a “junior-varsity Congress.”

Applying the guidelines is no easy task. I recently highlighted the peculiar fate of Jamie Olis, who was convicted of accounting fraud at the energy firm Dynegy. For the fraud itself, Olis’s sentence would have been about 1-2 years. But the guidelines called for an “enhancement” based on the amount of money investors had lost because of the fraud. The probation office argued that Olis was entirely responsible for the $100 million that a California retirement plan had lost on Dynegy stock over 2001-2002 — ignoring other factors that had battered the market that year (the 9/11 attacks; the broad collapse of energy stocks generally; the Enron scandal; Dynegy’s failed bid for Enron; and so forth). Crediting Olis with a $100 million loss increased his sentence to a range of 24-30 years. Accepting the probation office’s recital of the facts, the judge then sentenced Olis to 24 years in prison, the bottom end of the permitted range.

We should pause to emphasize that, while the judge in Olis’s case had no discretion to depart from the guideline range, he had absolute discretion to determine the amount of the fraud, which in turned determined the applicable guideline. Unfortunately, many Federal judges these days do as Olis’s judge did: they accept the probation office’s assumed facts, even when those facts are vigorously disputed by the defendant and were never found by a jury.

For several years, the Supreme Court has been wrestling with modern sentencing regimes that expose a defendant to long prison terms, based on the judge determining the existence of various “sentencing factors.” The burden of proof for a sentencing factor is usually a lot lower than the burden of proof for guilt. In the Federal system, sentencing factors need only be demonstrated by a “preponderance of the evidence.” As the Jamie Olis case shows, sometimes judges give short shrift even to that low standard.

The Federal sentencing regime was thrown into disarray in June, when the Supreme Court decided a case called Blakely vs. Washington. Ralph Blakely had pleaded guilty to kidnapping his estranged wife. Washington state law called for a sentence of 49 to 53 months. However, Washington’s criminal code calls for an enhanced sentence in cases where the defendant acted with “deliberate cruelty.” Finding that Blakely had done so, the judge sentenced him to 90 months in prison. The Supreme Court reversed, because Blakely’s sentence depended on an extra finding of fact (deliberate cruelty) that the defendant had not admitted. The Court said that any fact increasing the minimum sentence must either be admitted by the defendant or found beyond a reasonable doubt by a jury.

The critical point is that Washington’s sentencing system is virtually indistinguishable from the Federal system created by the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984. In Blakely, the Court wrote in a footnote, “The Federal Guidelines are not before us, and we express no opinion on them.” However, this is typical of the Supreme Court, which seldom rules on more than is necessary to decide the case before it. Anyone could see that, by the logic employed in Blakely, the Federal guidelines could not survive intact.

Sure enough, within weeks, several Federal Courts of Appeals had ruled the Federal guidelines unconstitutional, by the same rationale the Court had employed in Blakely. An even larger number of trial courts had done so. Several of these cases are already on the Supreme Court’s doorstep, with motions urging the Court to expedite consideration. It seems virtually certain that the Court will agree to do so.

Predicting how the Supreme Court will rule is always tricky, but almost no one expects the Court to find the Federal guidelines entirely Constitutional. The system is just too similar to the one the Court tossed out in Blakely. The more difficult question is what to do about it — which lawyers refer to as the “severability issue.” In short: are the guidelines that pass constitutional muster “severable” from those that do not?

The problem is that Congress clearly intended the guidelines to be used in all Federal criminal cases. What kind of strange system would we have, if they applied in some cases, but not in others? On the other hand, if the Supreme Court tosses out the entire Sentencing Reform Act, federal sentencing would return to the indeterminate scheme as it existed in 1984. Yet, that scheme assumed the existence of parole, which is no longer available under Federal law. So it is indeed a quagmire.

Blakely, like so many cases at the Supreme Court these days, was decided by a 5-4 margin. However, the division was not the Court’s usual conservative-liberal split. Instead, the two most conservative Justices, Scalia and Thomas, were joined by three of the most liberal, Stevens, Souter, and Ginsburg. Justice O’Connor, who is seldom on the losing side of a case, said of the case that, “It looks like a No. 10 earthquake to me.” And in a rare public show of frustration for a Justice, she said she was “disgusted in how we dealt with it.”

A wide range of judges and legal experts consider the twenty-year-old Federal guidelines a noble failure. They are too inflexible, too draconian, and too unfair. The current Congress, however, has done nothing to fix them. A Supreme Court ruling applying Blakely case to the Federal system would force Congress to try again.

Friday
Jul232004

$25 and Over

For many years, the New York Times has employed two restaurant critics, the only paper in town to do so. The main critic reviews the “high-end,” and another critic writes a column called “$25 and Under.” Just how the Times defines a $25 meal is unclear, but it seems to include only the entrées. For instance, in April Eric Asimov reviewed August, a Greenwich Village newcomer with entrées ranging from $16-24. Clearly, you’re not getting out of there for under $25, unless you drink sodas, skip dessert, and order from the bottom end of the menu. Indeed, my own solo meal at August ran to about $75 all-in, which included three courses and two drinks. I did not order the most expensive things, by any means. The definition of a meal’s cost on Zagat’s website is far more sensible, and consistent with the way other guides define it: “The cost column reflects the estimated price of a dinner with one drink and tip.”

Part of the Times’s problem is that the “$25 and Under” label has been unchanged since the 1980s. At one time, you probably could have eaten at these places for under $25. Asimov admitted to the New York Observer recently that the label is no longer strictly true:

Twelve years ago, The New York Times launched “$25 and Under,” a weekly column cataloging good (or at least decent) restaurants for cheap. A spokesperson for The Times declined to comment on whether the paper would consider changing the column to reflect today’s elevated prices.

On April 14, 2004, its writer, Eric Asimov, reviewed the meatpacking district’s Barbuto: “Best of all,” Mr. Asimov wrote, “the main courses are under $20 and almost all appetizers are under $10, providing a rare opportunity to try a celebrity chef’s work without celebrity prices.” Err, just what is our definition of “celebrity prices” these days?

Recently, Mr. Asimov hit Shore in Tribeca, which boasts a $29 steak, and La Nacional on 14th Street, with a $15-per-person paella and “tiny lamb chops,” also for $15.”It wouldn’t be incorrect to say the literal meaning of ‘$25 and Under’ doesn’t always apply anymore,” Mr. Asimov said. “It just so happens that in Manhattan, the neighborhood restaurant has greatly increased in price. In the 1990’s, when the economy was cruising along, all these neighborhood restaurants started serving foie gras.”

The fault lines were even more brutally exposed with this week’s pair of NYC reviews. The main critic, Frank Bruni, reviewed Ici (246 Dekalb Avenue, Brooklyn), where entrées are $12-17. In inflation-adjusted terms, it might be the most inexpensive restaurant ever to earn one star. It was also a rare venture outside Manhattan by the main critic. In the “$25 and Under” column, Matt and Ted Lee reviewed Maia (98 Avenue B), where entrées are $12-21. Thus, the so-called “$25 and Under” restaurant, which was ineligible for a star under the Times system, was actually more expensive than the restaurant the main critic covered this week. Whether the brothers Lee would have awarded Maia a star had they been allowed to is somewhat beside the point. There is no doubt in my mind that August warranted a star [it subsequently received two].

It must be pointed out that the “$25 and Under” critic sometimes reviews obscure, hole-in-the-wall places that are no more than an over-achieving sandwich shops or taco stands. To award these places a star would stretch the Times rating system beyond what it will bear. There’s a certain minimum expectation of service and pampering that one expects even at the low end of the star scale. A sandwich joint, no matter how good, just doesn’t deserve one star. But increasingly, the $25 and Under” column overlaps the main reviewer’s territory. Yet, these restaurants can’t have a star – and the cachet that goes with it.

This isn’t the only oddity in the Times’s reviewing system. The main critic actually writes two reviews a week: the main review on Wednesdays, and a shorter column called “Diner’s Journal” on Fridays. Restaurants covered in the Diner’s Journal are never eligible for stars, but sometimes the critic comes back and grants those restaurants a full review soon afterwards. A recent example was V Steakhouse in the Time Warner mall, which was the subject of a Diner’s Journal column on June 18th, and then a full one-star review on July 14th. The full review made essentially the same points as the Diner’s Journal column less than a month earlier. Had the restaurant been inclined to take any of Bruni’s points to heart (and I don’t know that they were), a month was clearly not enough time for them to do so.

The upshot is that the Times has three columns a week that walk, talk, and squalk like reviews, but only one of which awards the coveted stars. On eGullet, one writer thought that the two reviewing positions fall between two stools:

As it is right now, we have a “highbrow plus a little middlebrow” reviewer and a “lowbrow plus a little middlebrow” reviewer. In both cases, the reviewers are delving into somewhat inappropriate territory when they reach into the middle. Also, every time a middlebrow neighborhood place is reviewed by the high end guy, we’re missing out on a potential review or re-review of a haute place. Likwise, we’re missing out on a potential review or re-review of a cheap eats place every time the <$25 guys review a middlebrow neighborhood restaurant. There is also somewhat of an inequity as to which middlebrow restaurants are reviewed by which reviewer. There is no denying the fact that a review by the high end guy, even if some faults are mentioned, is more prestigious and beneficial to the restaurant than a glowing review by the <$25 guy. The inevitable result is that quality middlebrow neighborhood places are underrepresented with reviews. What we’re left with is a situation where certain middlebrow places are raised above their peers with a big review (e.g., Ici), others are given a <$25 review that doesn’t devote the kind and depth of scrutiny they deserve (e.g., Franny’s), and most of them are simply never reviewed (e.g., @SQC). I’d like to see a system whereby all thee of these places would have an informed, well-written review that was made by a reviewer who was familiar with middle-level dining, and that could be viewed against the history of other such reviews. This is a particular shame considering that middlebrow dining is one of the largest segments of NY dining.

Having said all that, I don’t see the slightest bit of evidence that the Times has any interest in fundamentally rethinking its system. But if they do, there’s certainly plenty to think about.

Tuesday
Jul202004

Martha and her Tasteful Orange Jumpsuit

Last week, domestic diva Martha Stewart was sentenced to five months in prison, plus five months’ home confinement, plus a fine of $30,000, for lying to Federal authorities about her sale of ImClone stock. Stewart has vowed to appeal her conviction, but I haven’t found a single independent legal commentator who thinks she has a credible shot at winning. Judge Cederbaum has allowed her to remain at large until the appeal is concluded, for while her chances may be slim, the appeal would be essentially meaningless if she were forced to serve her full sentence before it is heard.

Stewart is not a very sympathetic figure. After her sentence was handed down, she gave an interview in which she compared herself to Nelson Mandela. Given that Mandela was imprisoned for twenty-seven years on trumped-up political charges, it is hard to see how anybody could find such a comparison even remotely appropriate. Stewart also continues to insist that her case was “a small personal matter.” I have a feeling that Judge Cederbaum might have been a tad less generous had these comments been made before the sentencing.

At the same time, while I am repulsed by Stewart’s arrogance and lack of contrition, I think Cederbaum’s sentence — the minimum allowed by law — was appropriate. Stewart was convicted of violating 18 U.S.C Section 1001, which provides:

(a) Except as otherwise provided in this section, whoever, in any matter within the jurisdiction of the executive, legislative, or judicial branch of the Government of the United States, knowingly and willfully - (1) falsifies, conceals, or covers up by any trick, scheme, or device a material fact; (2) makes any materially false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or representation; or (3) makes or uses any false writing or document knowing the same to contain any materially false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or entry; shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than 5 years, or both.

This section of the United States Code was originally designed to punish liars who obstruct Federal investigations. But increasingly, the government uses Section 1001 to manufacture crimes when they know the defendant did something wrong, but they don’t exactly have a case they can put to a jury.

If you’re a prosecutor or FBI agent, the formula is simple enough. Just get the suspect to lie about a question to which the government already knows the answer. The suspect can then be prosecuted for that lie, even though the underlying offense can’t be proven beyond a reasonable doubt.

If the government asks the right questions, prosecutors can manufacture as many counts of lying as they want. The suspect doesn’t need to be under oath, and the interviewer doesn’t even need to keep accurate notes of precisely what was said. And remember, each lie carries a sentence up to five years in prison. Without much trouble, the government can easily rack up an indictment that threatens decades in prison, without even charging the underlying crime that they were originally investigating.

This is precisely what happened in Stewart’s case. The government eventually concluded that it could not prove the underlying offense — insider trading — beyond a reasonble doubt. But they did catch her lying, and those lies could be prosecuted as independent offenses. (The government also alleged other “collateral crimes,” of which Stewart was not convicted.)

Now, I don’t have any sympathy for Stewart’s lies. The government did not entrap her. While the law does not require the government to tell the people they interview that lying is a crime, Stewart was certainly sophisticated enough to know this without being told. There is also ample evidence that she did lie. But in the grand scheme, her lies were victimless, as the government already knew the answers to the questions it was asking.

In context, therefore, I think that Stewart truly deserved to be sentenced at the lower end of the Federal guideline range, which is precisely what Judge Cederbaum did. Even five months in the Federal pen will be a harrowing experience for Stewart, who has also seen her personal wealth and reputation dramatically reduced as a result of this affair. Her well-publicized fall from grace offers a sufficient deterrent to others who may find themselves faced with a Federal investigation. You can always take the Fifth, but if you submit to questions, your answers had better be true.

Wednesday
Jul072004

Do Running Mates Matter?

Every four years, the news media follows the VP selection frenzy with rapt attention. The choice is described as the nominee’s first truly “Presidential” decision. The pundits debate where and how the VP choice will help the ticket — or if will help at all.

After all that debate, the conventional wisdom is that running mates typically don’t matter very much. However, nobody knows for sure, because there isn’t an alternative universe where the same election is run with different VP candidates, to see if it turns out differently.

In my lifetime, most of the Presidential elections have been electoral college landslides. When that happens, it’s hard to argue that any conceivable VP candidate could have affected the outcome. In 1988, Michael Dukakis made a sound choice in southerner Lloyd Bentsen, but he still lost 40 out of 50 states. Just about everyone agrees that Dan Quayle was a slight drag on George H. W. Bush that year, but Dukakis ran one of the most inept campaigns in living memory. When that happens, you could have Thomas Jefferson as your running mate, and you are still going to lose.

I suppose common sense dictates that comparatively few voters make up their minds because of who’s running for Vice President. But in a very close election, “comparatively few” votes might be the difference between victory and defeat. In 2000, Al Gore barely lost in a handful states. Since all he needed was just one more state, it is emminently possible that the right running mate would have pushed him over the top — not because running mates make a huge difference, but because a slight difference was all Al Gore needed.

I’d say Joseph Lieberman turned out to be a poor, and perhaps fatal choice, for Al Gore. Lieberman’s two clear constituencies, Connecticut voters and Jewish voters, figured to vote for Gore in large numbers anyway. Gore chose Lieberman, in part, because Lieberman had been so publicly critical of Bill Clinton’s moral shortcomings. If that trait mattered, surely there are others who could have supplied it. Choosing a running mate from a swing state would have been better advice, and had Gore heeded it, he’d most likely be President today.

Most polls show the current Presidential race a statistical tie. If the race remains that close, every little factor, however slight, could figure in the eventual outcome. My bet is that John Edwards is a net positive for Kerry, and no other available choice would have been a better one. It will be a while before we know whether the race is close enough for it to matter.

Tuesday
Jul062004

It's Edwards!

It wasn’t quite “Dewey Defeats Truman,” but the New York Post has egg on its face this morning. The paper’s cover story announced that John Kerry was about to select Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt as his running mate. A few hours later, Kerry did indeed announce a running mate, but it wasn’t Gephardt. Instead, it was the populist Senator from North Carolina, John Edwards. The Post had quoted “unnamed sources,” but it is hard to imagine that the right-leaning New York tabloid is any Democratic insider’s first call. More likely, the Dems were having a little joke at the Post’s expense.

According to news reports over the last week, three candidates were at the top of Kerry’s list: Edwards, Gephardt, and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack. It’s hard for me to see how Vilsack ever made it that far. I’m sure he’s a competent governor, but he’s virtually unknown outside of his home state. Collective yawns would have greeted his appointment, and more yawning is the last thing the Kerry campaign needed.

The choice between Gephardt and Edwards was a lot tougher. Gephardt is a seasoned national campaigner, and there’s little doubt he would be a capable President if something happened to Kerry. After more than twenty years in the spotlight, it’s unlikely Gephardt would commit a major blunder, and it’s equally unlikely that any surprises are lurking in his background. If ever the words “squeaky clean” applied to anyone, it’s Gephardt. He also polls strongly with the union voters who could help Kerry capture the midwestern industrial states that the Democrats must win to beat Bush. Lastly, Gephardt hails from Missouri, which practically defines the phrase “bellweather state.” No one since Dwight Eisenhower in 1956 has won the Presidency without winning Missouri.

But Gephardt is often singularly unexciting — just as Kerry is. He has trouble turning on an audience, unless it is an audience of people who are already rabid supporters. Those aren’t the supporters Kerry needs; they’re voting for him already. Gephardt has polled poorly both times he ran for President, and there’s a good reason for it. The political influence of union households has been waning for the last twenty years, and most non-union Americans perceive Gephardt as being far too liberal. Among many conservative-leaning and undecided voters, the prospect of a Vice President Gephardt wouldn’t be a happy thought.

Edwards, on the other hand, brings to the campaign the excitement, charisma, and energy that Kerry so often lacks. Recent test polls suggested that, among the plausible VP choices, only Edwards would boost Kerry’s standing with undecided voters. Edwards has already polled well in the midwestern state of Iowa, where his unexpected 2nd-place showing in the January caucuses first propelled him to national attention. His populist image should help Kerry in key midwestern states where the economy has not recovered as rapidly as it has done elsewhere. Edwards also waged a remarkably civil campaign during the primary season. He seldom criticized Kerry directly, and his views are similar to Kerry’s on most issues.

By choosing Edwards, a southerner, Kerry has signaled that the Democrats don’t intend to write off the South. But can Edwards actually pull any southern states into the Democratic column? Recent polls have suggested that a handful of southern states could be in play, but no poll has actually shown Kerry leading in any of them. VP nominees are seldom relevant to the race anywhere but in their home state, and and it is far from certain that Kerry can win either of the Carolinas, even with Edwards on the ticket. Few men have won the Presidency without winning the VP’s home state (Nixon in 1968 was the last to do it), and few VP nominees have had significant influence on the race elsewhere (Johnson in 1960 may have been the only one who did).

Republicans are sure to point out Edwards’s comparatively shallow resume. After a long and lucrative career as a trial lawyer, Edwards was elected to the Senate and has served a single term. That is the extent of his political career. Lack of experience has never prevented anyone from getting elected Vice President — just ask Spiro Agnew or Dan Quayle — but in an era when war and global terrorism dominate the agenda, Edwards’s lack of international experience looks like a gaping hole in his credentials. He will need to study hard, to avoid getting smoked when he debates Dick Cheney.

The Presidential race has been a statistical tie for months now, with Bush and Kerry polling around 45% apiece. Just 10% of the voters prefer another candidate (typically Nader) or are undecided. This is a lower undecided percentage than is typical for this stage of the race. It suggests what many pundits have recognized — that the race is polarized, with far more Americans than usual having already made up their minds. This month, culminating in the Democratic National Convention in Boston, is Kerry’s last good chance to put some distance between himself and Bush. The President can reasonably be expected to dominate the month of August, leading up to the Republican national Convention around Labor Day. If Kerry hopes to win, he needs to have and hold a lead by then. Historically, the candidate with a Labor Day lead nearly always goes on to win in November.

Although there was no absolutely safe choice, Edwards represented Kerry’s best chance to put some juice into a race that has been stagnant since Kerry wrapped up the nomination in March. As another batch of polls comes out late in the week, we’ll find out if he has succeeded. My bet is that he has.