Laura Bush’s Flawed Science

I don’t know what First Lady Laura Bush majored in, but I’ll go out on a limb and guess it wasn’t biology. In an interview with the Associated Press, she praised her husband’s policy virtually banning stem cell research in any lab that receives Federal funding.

To be exact, the Bush policy limits stem cell research to the 78 stem cell lines that were in existence on Aug. 9, 2001 — the date the ban was announced. It has turned out, for a variety of reasons, that only 21 of those lines have been useful. Some of those lines have other problems that limit their practical utility. About 99.9% of the lines that could potentially be studied are unavailable. The ban doesn’t apply to privately-funded research, but there are few laboratories and/or scientists that don’t receive Federal funding at some point, making the ban extremely effective at very nearly shutting down this avenue of research.

Laura Bush said, “We don’t even know that stem cell research will provide cures for anything — much less that it’s very close.” But of course, one seldom knows for sure that a scientific breakthrough is “very close” until it happens. The Bush policy ensures that progress, whether close or not, will come a lot more slowly than it should.

Electoral College Math

If you passed ninth grade civics, you know that electoral votes — not popular votes — decide U. S. Presidential elections. There are 538 electoral votes available. That corresponds to the number of senators (100) and representatives (435) in Congress, plus three for the District of Columbia. The actual electoral voters are local party officials who are totally unknown to people like you and me. Being named an elector is their reward for years of toiling anonymously but loyally in partisan politics.

Taken together, the group of electors is called the “Electoral College.” I don’t know why they’re called a “college” — they’re nothing of the kind — but we might as well get used to it. By the way, the correct pronunciation is e-LECT-or-al, not e-lect-OR-al. You can show your political savvy by pronouncing it correctly.

It would take too much space to explain why the Founders chose this peculiar system, which most Americans don’t seem to understand. Some people would like to see the Electoral College abolished or modified, but this has no chance of happening. The system overwhelmingly benefits the less-populous states, because each state, no matter how few citizens it has, gets at least 3 electoral votes. This means even Alaska, which is almost all wilderness, carries 0.55762% of the votes necessary to elect a President. Many of the thinly-populated states have considerably less than 0.55762% of the nation’s voters, so the electoral college gives them a lot more influence than they would otherwise have.

A constitutional amendment to abolish the Electoral College would require a 2/3rds vote by both Houses of Congress, followed by the approval of at least 3/4ths of the state legislatures. A lot more than 1/4th of the states benefit from the present system, because they have more votes than a purely proportional allocation would give them. Any amendment to make the system more democratic would therefore be opposed by enough states to prevent its passage. This simply goes to show that we’re going to have the Electoral College with us for a long time. Probably forever.

In 2000, George W. Bush beat Al Gore in the Electoral College 271-267 (with 270 needed to win), making it one of the closest elections ever. Actually, one of Al Gore’s electors abstained in protest, so his official total was just 266. I’m giving Gore credit for 267, because I don’t think the elector would have done this had her vote mattered. Gore would have been President had he won just one more state — and he barely lost in several, most notably Florida, but also in New Hampshire, among others.

The available electoral votes get reapportioned among the states every ten years, after the census. Over many decades, this process has gradually worked against the Democrats, as Republican-leaning states in the deep south and far west continue to gain in population compared to the rest of the country. Had Michael Dukakis in 1988 managed to win the states Al Gore won in 2000, Dukakis would have been President. (Dukakis, of course, ran one of the most inept campaigns in modern times, and came nowhere close to winning enough states to be President.)

Since the 2000 election, another census has rejuggled the electoral votes, giving the Republicans a further advantage. If George W. Bush wins the same states as in 2000, he’ll win in the Electoral College by a margin of 278-260. Of the states Al Gore won, just California has gained an electoral vote, while six of Gore’s other states have lost them. Four Bush states have lost an electoral vote apiece, but seven others have gained a vote or two.

Of course, neither party is guaranteed to win the same states as last time, but the electorate is more polarized than it has ever been before. By most accounts, there are about thirty states that are essentially non-competitive. Indeed, there are eleven states (worth 62 electoral votes) that have voted Republican in every election since 1964. Another eight states (worth 60 electoral votes) have voted Republican eight out of the last nine. In total, that gives George Bush 122 electoral votes in states he can win without ever paying a visit.

No states are as dependably Democratic as the nineteen the Republicans have in their hip pockets. As recently as 1984, Ronald Reagan carried 49 out of 50, losing just Walter Mondale’s home state of Minnesota. Richard Nixon had done the same in 1972, losing only Massachusetts. (People think of Kerry’s home state as a liberal bastion, but it voted for Reagan twice, and it has a Republican governor.) In 1988, the first Bush won 40 out of 50 over Michael Dukakis. Oh, the Democrats did carry the District of Columbia in those landslides, so that gives them just 3 electoral votes that are rock-solid.

Turning to more recent history, there’s a core group of states that have been solidly Democratic for the last several elections, and in which John Kerry currently enjoys very large leads that even Republicans would concede are insurmountable. Although there are only eleven states (plus D.C.) in this category, it includes three of the five largest prizes: California (55 E.V.), New York (31) and Illinois (21). Altogether, Kerry has at least 168 electoral votes locked in, which is just 102 shy of the number needed for election.

The remaining twenty states are commonly called the “battleground states.” If you live in one of these states, you’re going to be seeing an awful lot of George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, John Kerry, and John Edwards. These are the states that both sides recognize as competitive. They could go either way. Most polls in the battleground states show either no meaningful lead, or a lead for one candidate that’s well within the margin of polling error. That’s why they call them battlegrounds.

Nevertheless, the news in the contested states is better for Kerry than it is for Bush. In every such state that Al Gore won in 2000, Kerry has consistently led in the polls (even if only slightly). In other words, there is no state that Bush lost four years ago that he can feel particularly good about winning in 2004. Kerry’s lead is weakest in Minnesota (10 E.V.), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (7), and New Mexico (5), but he is ahead in all of them. On the other hand, should Bush make inroads in the larger Kerry states, such as Pennsylvania (21) or Michigan (17), it would be a sign that Kerry’s in big trouble.

Bush, on the other hand, is already in some trouble in several states that he won in 2000, particularly New Hampshire (4), West Virginia (5), Missouri (11), and Florida (27). Whether he holds the lead in these states can change almost daily, but at this writing it looks like he would lose at least three out of the four. Bush is also vulnerable (that is, within the margin of polling error) in several Republican strongholds he once expected to win easily, such as Nevada (5), Ohio (20), Arkansas (6), Arizona (11), Tennessee (11), and Virginia (13). John Kerry is unlikely to win all of these, but he doesn’t need them. If Kerry holds Al Gore’s states, he only needs to peel away 10 electoral votes that George Bush won four years ago. As of today, Kerry stands a very good chance of doing that. We’ll have to see if that’s still true after the Republican National Convention, when Bush can expect at least a modest “bounce” in the polls.

A Presidential election is actually fifty-one separate elections that happen to be held on the same day. Nationwide public opinion polls, which are the most common kind we see, tend to obscure the state-by-state races where the election is really decided. Both campaigns have Electoral College strategists who are experts in all the different ways of counting to 270. Just look at where George Bush and John Kerry spend their time over the next three months, and you’ll have a very good idea where the battle is being fought.

Restaurants fresh. and shore.

Note: Shore and Fresh both closed.

*

Part of the affectation at fresh. (105 Reade St) and shore. (41 Murray St) is that a period always follows the restaurant name, even in the middle of a sentence. Hence, you do not order the Fresh Salad, but the “fresh. Salad.” Neither the Shore Chicken, but the “shore. Chicken.” A sibling called “coast.” is to open around Labor Day on Liberty Street downtown.

They’re run by the same outfit that supplies seafood to the likes of Alain Ducasse, Le Bernardin, and Bouley. Fresh and Shore (forgive me for eschewing the periods) share a common chef, Daniel Angerer. Fresh is the upscale version (two NYT stars), while Shore got a favorable “$25-and-under” review from Eric Asimov earlier this year.

Coincidentally, I tried both within a couple of days of each other. (I didn’t know that a business associate was planning dinner at Fresh on Monday night, when I chose Shore on Saturday night.)

At 41 Murray Street, Shore is just barely in TriBeCa. Actually, it is technically not in TriBeCa, although some real estate folk now use “TriBeCa South” to refer to the thin wafer of streets bounded by Chambers, Vesey, Broadway, and the West Side Highway. It’s a bit like the rebranding of Hell’s Kitchen.

But I see no evidence that Shore is trying to capitalize on its TriBeCa proximity. Indeed, the exterior seems positively designed to discourage walk-ins. It looks like just another one of the dive bars that permeate the area. The restaurant’s name is on a fading tie-on banner, lending the place a makeshift appearance that makes you wonder if they’re still deciding whether to stay.

With such a seedy exterior, you have no idea that the inside will look so warm and inviting. It’s an airy sea-shore esthetic, with ample space between the tables, a raw bar, space for live musicians, and service that’s both friendly and efficient. Shore wasn’t full the night I visited — far from it. An exterior facelift would certainly help.

Shore has a specials menu that changes daily. Thankfully, they print it and attach it to the menu, instead of forcing us to memorize a list recited by the server. Their main menu changes seasonally. I placed a hopelessly contrarian order: Smothered Barbequed Baby-Back ribs. Well, forgive me, but I was just in a mood for ribs, and it turns out Shore does a damned good job of them. My friend ordered the Boston Batter-Fried Combo Plate, which comes in a paper basket as if you’d ordered it at the shore. It includes shrimp, scallops, lemon sole, clams, and fries. I tasted a good deal of her plate, and it was delightful.

Overall, Shore is a great escape — like going to the shore without leaving Manhattan. Appetizers are anywhere from $4 for a cup of soup, to $16 for a pail of steamers. Mains are anywhere from $8 (fried lemon sole sandwich) to $22 (baked stuffed shrimp).

At Fresh, which I tried two evenings later, the menu changes daily. The décor is bright and airy. You’ll either welcome it like a fresh breeze, or you’ll find the sea-blue murals decidedly kitschy. Take your pick, but I liked it. Service was superb, although we had an early reservation, so there was plenty of staff available to attend us.

There’s a six-course $65 tasting menu, with two choices per course, which is what my associate and I ordered. I’m afraid I can’t remember most of the courses, aside from the foie gras, which was out-of-this-world. A tomato soup came highly recommended by our server, but I was underwhelmed. The main fish course was a hit. Overall, I have had more awesome tasting menus, but at $65 this one is a comparative bargain.

The Incredible Shrinking Election

The post-convention polls are in, and there isn’t much for John Kerry to crow about. His “bounce” is, at best, a modest 1-2 points, which is statistically irrelevant when you consider that the margin of error in most polls is 3-4 points. Indeed, the Gallup/USA Today poll actually had him losing ground to Bush after the convention. I am inclined to discount the Gallup result because it is so far askew from all of the other polls. Nevertheless, Kerry’s bounce shapes up to be the smallest of any challenger since the Democrats nominated George McGovern in the middle of the night in 1972.

Naturally, the two parties have contrasting views as to why this happened. Republicans say that the voters finally got a good look at John Kerry, and they don’t like what they see. Democrats say that most voters had already made up their minds, and they never expected a large bounce. Neither explanation is particularly convincing, although surely the Democrats hoped for a bounce greater than zero, which is about what they got.

An article in today’s USA Today gives eight possible reasons for the non-bounce, but concludes: “Check back in five weeks” — that is, after the Republican convention. Kerry’s convention performance can be compared to the top half of the first inning in baseball. The visiting team failed to score. Bush’s convention will be the bottom half of the inning. If most voters have already decided who they’re voting for, then Bush won’t get a bounce either. If Bush does get a bounce, he could head into the fall election season with a significant advantage, since the candidate ahead as of Labor Day has almost always won in November.

The New York Times noted this morning that Kerry had two clear shots to change the dynamics of the race during July. The selection of John Edwards as his running mate was the first, and his convention speech was the second. Neither has significantly helped him, and Bush figures to dominate the headlines during the month of August. Kerry will need to play defense until after Labor Day, when the debate season will offer his last chance at swaying that ever-shrinking segment of the electorate that has not already made up its mind.

Church Street Post Office Reopens

The 67-year-old post office at 90 Church Street — across the street from Ground Zero — reopened today for the first time since September 11, 2001. On the outside, the building had no obvious damage, but the insides were contaminated with 9/11 pixie dust. The facility had to be almost entirely gutted, and most of the windows replaced.

The building is still girthed in scaffolding, which I hope will come down soon, but as of this morning it was open for business once again. I was one of its last users before the terrorist attacks, having stopped there to mail a package early that morning.

Any return to normalcy is to be welcomed, but I have particularly selfish reasons for welcoming back the Church Street post office, because it’s on my route to work every morning. For the last three years, I’ve had to go well out of my way to buy stamps or get an overweight package mailed. From now on, I’ll be back home at Church Street.

Update: If you never thought a building from the 1930s could look and smell brand-spanking-new, then visit the post office at 90 Church Street. I spoke to one of the employees about it. They love the fresh paint and bright lighting. And all of the self-service kiosks actually have pens that write! (I wonder how long that’ll last.)

Artisanal Revisited

I paid my second visit to Artisanal the other night (earlier visit here). My friend and I had a 7:00pm reservation. Most tables were still empty at this time (this being an early reservation), but they were certainly full by the time we left.

We had the fondue. The menu lists five fondues, but they also had two specials. We chose the “100 cheese” fondue, which was excellent. Artisanal’s fondues come with a bowl of bread squares for dipping, but you can also order side dishes (“Les Baigneuses”), at $6.50 apiece. We chose the beef tips and the air-dried beef. The latter item deserves a more enticing description. It was thinly-sliced dried beef, something like cured ham, and extremely tasty. The beef tips were lightly cooked, very rare, juicy sirloin.

We also asked for a side order of the Gougeres, which are available in small or large portions ($7.50 or $10.50). These are hopelessly addictive, so I recommend ordering the small size unless you want to ruin your dinner.

The fondue comes in two sizes (petite and grande), serving 1-3 or 4-6 persons respectively. For two people, it’s quite filling enough to be a meal, so we just ordered a cheese plate for dessert. Artisanal offers numerous composed thematic cheese plates, but you can also choose your own. We chose four cheeses ($18), with the able assistance of the fromagier. For the record, they were:

• Robila Due Latte, Italy (“Yielding, Lactic, Subtle”)
• Manchego, Spain (“Briny, Nutty, Sturdy”)
• Ubriaco del Piave, Italy (“Crumbly, Hints of Pineapple & Wine”)
• Keen’s Cheddar, England (“Creamy, Earthy, Meaty Finish”)

These were wonderful choices. The Robila Due Latte and the Ubriaco del Piave were my favorites. The Manchego and the Keen’s Cheddar were wonderful, but not (for me) sufficiently differentiated from the others. But then, where a choice is offered, I usually ask for the most ridiculously exotic choices available. My friend was in a bit more conservative mood.

Many of the posts on the food boards have reported service issues at Artisanal. I didn’t have that reaction on my first visit, but this time was another story. It took two hours to get through all of the above, mainly because we were left waiting for such ridiculously long times. When I sat down, my server asked if I’d like a drink. I asked for tap water, while I perused the wine list. The tap water came instantly, but twenty minutes later the server hadn’t returned to take my drink order.

It seemed like 15 minutes after we were done with the fondue before our server came by to ask about dessert; another 15 minutes before the fromagier came over; another 15 minutes before the cheese actually arrived. I didn’t actually time these things, but two hours had gone by before we knew it.

On the other hand, once you did order something, it usually came quickly (other than the cheese). Dirty plates were cleared promptly, and they were attentive about refilling our water glasses. But if you needed your server, you were in for a very long wait. We were in no hurry, so it didn’t really bother us that much. I wouldn’t recommend Artisanal for a pre-theater dinner!

Another friend recently visited Artisanal and had a similar experience with poor service. She, too, was sufficiently wowed by the food, and says she will quite happily return, as will I. Just don’t go there when you’re in a hurry.

Artisanal (2 Park Avenue at 32nd Street, Murray Hill)

Food: **
Service: Fair
Ambiance: *
Overall: **

Downtown JFK Rail Link Gets a Boost

The White House has agreed to recommend that $2 billion in post-9/11 Federal aid be converted to a direct grant that would help fund a rail link between JFK airport and Lower Manhattan. The funds had previously been allocated to the Liberty Bond program. Congress must still approve the shift, but with White House backing approval seems likely.

It’s thought that the rail link would cost at least $6.0 billion. The MTA has allocated $400 million for the link in its next capital program, and the Port Authority says it will contribute about $560 million. That means Gov. Pataki, who strongly backs the rail link, still neads to find about another $3.0 billion — and that assumes the initial cost estimates are accurate. (The $6.0 billion figure seems low to me.)

Another $500 million could come from canceling the unpopular West Street tunnel, which at almost $700 million is surely the most wasteful of the Lower Manhattan rebuilding projects. West Street could be widened to eight lanes at-grade for just $175 million, freeing the surplus for much worthier projects.

71 Clinton Fresh Food

I feel compelled to note for the record that I tried 71 Clinton Fresh Food a couple of weeks ago. It’s part of the gaggle of high-end Lower East Side eateries that have opened in recent years. Star chef Wylie Dufresne made his name here, but Dufresne hopped across the street to the award-winning WD-50.

71CFF is now under chef Jason Neroni. I never visited the restaurant during Dufresne’s tenure, so I can’t make comparisons. However, I was underwhelmed. I have already forgotten the appetizer, and a duck entree seemed unimaginative.

Mind you, I didn’t consider myself ill-served at 71CFF. But with appetizers in the $11-19 range, and main courses $19-27, it’s not a cheap evening out. The city, and indeed the neighborhood, has better to offer at that price.

Postscript: Not long after our visit, Frank Bruni reviewed 71 Clinton Fresh Food in The New York Times, re-affirming its two-star rating. The restaurant closed in March 2006, after the chef, Jason Neroni, left to cook for “some kind of billionaire.” The billionaire must not have been smitten, because by November Neroni was back in New York, helming the stoves at an “unpretentious Italian bistro,” Porchetta. That’s now closed, too.

71 Clinton Fresh Food (71 Clinton Street between Rivington & Stanton Streets, Lower East Side)

Food: *
Service: **
Ambiance: *
Overall: *

Thalia

Some restaurants have the buzz, and some don’t. Thalia is one of those restaurants that’s never mentioned on the food boards, but it carries a two-star NYT rating from 2000, and based on my visit there the other night, it deserves a lot more attention.

I started with the Seared Herb Crusted Tuna Sashimi, which comes with pickled vegetables, sweet soy, chive oil & hot mustard. (I am copying from their website, else my identification of the ingredients wouldn’t be so precise.) The tuna was wonderfully fresh, and the soy sauce, which artfully decorated the plate, added a tangy finish to the taste.

For the main course, I had the Jerked Florida Grouper, which is served with lump crabmeat pico de gallo, sweet plantains & chipotle pepper sauce. This too was a wonderfully inventive combination, giving life to a fish that I usually find dull.

I have to report that my friend was a bit less enthusiastic. She had the crab cakes appetizer and the rack of lamb entrée. No particular complaint, but she wasn’t as wowed by her choices as I was.

To conclude, we shared a Trio of Creme Brulee, which comes with three small servings of raspberry, lavender, and chocolate Pot de Creme. No complaint here, and at $10 a bargain.

Appetizers are $7-18 (the latter for a lobster salad; all others are $14 or less), entrées $13-27, and desserts $7-10 ($14 for the cheese tasting). There is also a raw bar, which we did not sample.

Service was prompt — perhaps to a fault. Our appetizers arrived seemingly within minutes, which was so quick that our server hadn’t yet arrived with the wine. The wine list seemed to us expensive in relation to the menu. We settled on a $38 red that was acceptable without being special. The next level up would have required us to spend quite a bit more, which we weren’t of a mind to do.

The noise level at Thalia was mercifully lower than at many restaurants I’ve tried lately, although there is still an audible buzz around the place. We enjoyed a leisurely meal and were able to hear ourselves talk, which is never a given in New York restaurants.

Thalia (828 Eighth Avenue at 50th Street, West Midtown)

Food: *
Service: *
Ambiance: *
Overall: *

Babbo

Note: Click here and here for more recent visits to Babbo.

In New York, there’s hardly a tougher table to come by than at Babbo, chef Mario Batali’s flagship in Greenwich Village. Reservations are accepted up to one month to the calendar date in advance, and if you want one you’d best call at 10:00am on that exact date.

But if you don’t mind eating at the bar, you can amble in any day at the 5:00pm opening time. Babbo offers wonderful service at the bar itself, and there are also several tables in the area that are first-come, first-served. I gave Babbo a try last Saturday night, sitting at the bar as many reviews had recommended.

I had my heart set on the pasta tasting menu, but I was surprised to learn that they won’t serve their tasting menus to parties of one. What an unfriendly policy! It’s their loss, as I ended up spending less money.

Anyhow, I proceeded to order à la carte. Babbo is well known for offal, so that’s where my priorities lay. I started with Pig’s Feet Milanese. This looked a bit like a large potato pancake, crispy on the outside, gooey on the inside. It was a wonderful taste sensation.

I then had the dish so much talked about, the Beef Cheek Ravioli. Perhaps it was inevitable that it couldn’t exceed its reputation, but it is a wonderful creation, putting traditional raviolis to shame.

Babbo offers plates of 3, 5, of 7 cheeses for dessert, priced at $12, $15, and $18 respectively. I chose the 5-cheese plate, which was really far too much for one person after a full-size appetizer and main course. A waiter came around and gave a back-story for all five cheeses (one of them came from a farm run by Mario Batali’s wife’s parents) and recommended the order in which they should be eaten, from least-to-most “assertive.”

In an unusual custom, Babbo serves its single-serving wines by the quartino, rather than by the glass. A quartino is about 1/3 of a bottle, so you get about two glasses for around the price many restaurants charge for just one. I’m not a big drinker, so that was about all I needed to pace myself through the meal.

The New York Times’s new restaurant critic, Frank Bruni, chose Babbo as his first review, re-affirming a three-star status first conferred by Ruth Reichl six years ago. I agree with Frank Bruni that Babbo is a bit too crowded to qualify for four stars, but he complained of “relatively hard rock” music, played too loudly for comfort. I found none of this. Perhaps the soundtrack changes later in the evening?

Although I was there alone on this occasion, I believe my dining companions — had there been any — would have heard each other a lot easier than in most New York restaurants I’ve tried recently. The Bruni review led me to expect the hustle-bussle of a brasserie, and that Babbo is not. Service was excellent, particularly considering that I was a bar patron.

Babbo has so much to offer, and I felt that I saw just the tip of the iceberg. I will have to go back.

Babbo (110 Waverly Pl. between MacDougal St. and Sixth Ave., Greenwich Village)

Food: ***
Service: **
Ambiance: **
Overall: ***